The Agri-Food Value View
"Building Wealth Through Global Agri-Food Investments"

THE AGRI-FOOD VALUE VALUE
is the premier newsletter on Agri-Food investing.
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Disclaimer: All performance numbers cited are
hypothetical and based on paper portfolios. They do
not reflect actual transactions or portfolios. They
certainly do not predict likely future performance.

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Ned's Random Agri-Thoughts:


21 May 2017

Agri-Food Price Index: 261.72
1 Week % Change:   + 3.0%
4 Week % Change:   + 9.2%                                
52 Week % Change:   +18.9%
                       200 Day Moving Average: 228.00                                                  
52-Week High: 261.72    0%
52-Week Low: 193.39 +35%

Agri-Food Price Index hit new 52-week high last week. US broilers and
butter hit new 52-week highs. Average gain for Agri-Commodities from
52-week lows is more than 30%. Excluding corn, soybeans, and wheat,
the remainder are up near 40% on average. That measure suggests an
extremely strong market. In such a market, the laggards eventually begin
to catch up. We believe that US corn prices will lead the three major grains
higher. Just did our corn supply/demand analysis for June newsletter, and it
is a positive picture. We note that other analysts are starting to be more
positive on US corn.

Brazilian political mess is a real mess. Does not seem to be a path to a positive
resolution of it in the immediate term. Hard to imagine president and businessmen
acting as stupid as being reported by some sources. Conclusion: Brazilian currency
will basically remain weak causing more soybeans to come out of that nation.

Roughly 60% of Agri-Equities are performing better than market. But, Brazil
has hurt. JBS management may be involved in part of government’s turmoil.
However, continue selling out of Brazil due to weak curency is likely to benefit
ADM and BG. Bigger issue is whether or not U.S. equity market put in the
beginning of a large rolling “top” last week. Remember, 14 June
FOMC raises rates for the 4th time.


6 May 2017

Agri-Food Price Index: 249.74
1 Week % Change:   + 2.1%
4 Week % Change:   + 1.9%                                
52 Week % Change:   +14.0%
200 Day Moving Average: 228.00                                                  
52-Week High: 257.26  - 3%
52-Week Low: 193.39 +29%

Thanks to strong prices for animal proteins and bottoms in most grains,
Agri-Food Price Index had a strong week. Index is up 14% from a year ago,
and up 29% from October low. While seasonals are helping, demand simply
is stronger in animals than many think. Both USDA beef index and feeder cattle
new hit 52- week highs. U.S. broilers are close. U.S. hogs up 52% from lows.

Importantly, major grains seem to have made recent lows. US corn recent
low 24 Mar, soybeans 7 April and HRW wheat 21 April. Our measure of
US corn closed week at $3.65. A price above $3.75 would create a lot
of corn bulls, and cause a lot of pain for teenage traders short grains.

Good news and bad news out of Brazil. Prices to farmers are low, below
breakeven for most farmers. Estimates are hard to make sense of as depends
on which grain and which regions is being discussed. Some estimates are as
high 70% of the harvest has not been sold, far above normal times. Means
U.S. grains are still selling in export market. Also, Brazilian farmers are likely
to severely cut back next year plantings. Environment for next year better
than pessimistic views.

Bad news was for ADM and BG. Both experienced weak earnings in
Brazil because of little grain being sold. BG was hit the most. June will probably
be a good time to look at these two stocks. We had carried both of them
as over valued.

WASDE could be interesting this week.


17 April 2017

We updated samples available in links to right.

8 April 2017

Agri-Food Price Index: 244.99
1 Week % Change:   - 1.8%
4 Week % Change:   - 1.7%                                
52 Week % Change:   +15.1%
200 Day Moving Average: 225.60                                                  
52-Week High: 257.26  - 3%
52-Week Low: 193.39 +29%

Irrational Selling by Teenagers in Futures Still Causing Damage
Selling in major grains has turned near entire Agri-Food system sentiment
negative. Cash grains prices, soybeans, wheat, and corn, deeply, deeply
oversold. That over sold condition, however, may be starting to end. Our
cash prices for both corn and HRW wheat are up from two weeks ago.

Soybean trading makes no sense. USDA estimate for crop year 2017,
ends 31 August, soybean exports is 55.11mm tons. To date, soybeans
exports, actually shipped and sold but not shipped, equals 55.152mm tons.
Soybean exports already more than estimate for the year.

Also, estimate is US farmers will plant 6mm acres more of soybeans this year.
Corn acres to be down 4mm acres. Where will those 2mm acres come from?
Land that was not good for either soybean or corn is now suddenly good
land for soybeans. Doubt it.

Wonder is WASDE this week will make any sense.

U.S. equity markets have two problems: Interest rates and Syria. 47% of Agri-
Equities doing better than market so far in April. JBSAY is extremely
attractive at current price. Brazil beefgate was not the end of the world.

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25 March 2017

Published Interim Comments yesterday, 24 March
Like everyone else we are waiting for USDA
Prospective Planting report on Friday, 31st

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Use Contact Us button at top to receive it.


18 March 2017

Agri-Food Price Index: 257.26 (New 52-week High)
1 Week % Change:   + 3.2%
4 Week % Change:   + 4.4%                                
52 Week % Change:   +17.5%
                  200 Day Moving Average: 224.20                                                  
52-Week High: 257.26    
52-Week Low: 193.39 +33%

Bull Market Continues
Strength largely in animal proteins. Exception hogs and pork which are in short
seasonal flat period. Broiler and eggs both strong. Could that be some preemptive
buying on worries about bird flu?

Pessimism in grains continue to be high, and likely too pessimistic. Average
gain from 52 week lows all 18 Agri-Commidities is 35%. Even after recent
weakness in some grains, 10 of 18, 56%, have gains of more than 20%
from lows. BUT, US soybeans only up 8% and US corn up 12%.
FEAR of S.A. crops is likely too high.

After a rough start to month as funds clamored to own techology/internet stocks Agri-
Equities have been improving. However, as we note in last interim comments, few
bargains exist.

Fundamentally, ADM and BG best positioned. ADM expanding fish meal
operations in China as it continues to move business in that direction.
JBS has purchased Plumrose USA, ham and bacon, to expand US footprint,
and reported good quarter. BUT, Brazil has raided plants of JBS and BRFS
over possible bribery. JBSAY pushed down dramatically to an attractive price.


6 March 2017

Agri-Food Price Index: 242.41
1 Week % Change:   - 0.1%
4 Week % Change:   - 2.9%                                
52 Week % Change:   +13.0%
200 Day Moving Average: 223.24  
52-Week High: 249.69    -3%
52-Week Low: 193.39 +25%

Bull Market Continues, BUT
as we wrote in the March letter(mailed 4 March) the rise from October low
has been exceptionally strong. Characteristic of that rise and recent action
suggests that Agri-Food Price Index will consolidate in what might be called
an Elliot Wave II. That suggests consolidation of prices through something like
June/July. WASDE, due this week, should not have a lot of food for bears,
but bears will be looking for any excuse to sell. Soybeans are especially vulnerable.

U.S. cash corn continues above 200-day moving average. Our measure of
that price recently hit highest level since 2014. Question is when will our
measure of U.S. cash corn hit $4, not if.
          
Is the speculative bing in U.S. stocks now starting to unravel? FOMC seems
somewhat determined to raise U.S. interest rates on 15 March. That should
not be good for U.S. stocks. Agri-Equities had a good February, and past year
has been fantastic. However, given current level of valuation not many bargains.
Fundamentally, ADM and BG best positioned.







                                             

A web cast on Gold & Agri  21 Feb  2017
To hear web cast:
Gold & Agriculture
PEAK FOOD: INTRO
is now the dominant trend and will
influence Agri-Foods for decades.
Read our introductory article:
Peak Food: An Introduction
GOLDMONEY
We are now accepting payment through
goldmoney.com for subscriptions. If you
would like to use it send us an email at
ned@agrifoodvalueview.com
PEAK FOOD: PART TWO
extends our discussion of Peak Food
and the implications.
Read our Part Two artiicle:
Peak Food: Part Two
PEAK FOOD: ISLAND EARTH
continues our discussion of peak food.
Agricultural area of Earth has peaked.
Island Earth  

Web cast on Gold & Agriculture
20 March
.
On Gold & Agriculture