|The Agri-Food Value View
"Building Wealth Through Global Agri-Food Investments"
THE AGRI-FOOD VALUE VALUE
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Ned's Random Agri-Thoughts:
11 February 2017
Agri-Food Price Index: 245.87
1 Week % Change: - 1.5%
4 Week % Change: + 2.0%
52 Week % Change: +13.0%
200 Day Moving Average: 220.85
52-Week High: 249.69 -2%
52-Week Low: 193.39 +27%
A New Bull Market Continues Developing
Big news of the week was release of the latest WASDE. No bear food was
found in that report. Some traders had expected end of crop year soybean
inventory estimate might be reduced. It was not, and they were disappointed.
This report was the third in a row lacking bear food. We consider that a critical
change in the direction of the news. While worry over size South American harvest
continues, that a lot of U.S. grain has been sold cannot be ignored. World needs
record harvests to satisfy record demand.
U.S. cash prices look well structured. Cash soybeans joined cash wheat
and corn prices above their 200-day moving average. Now looking for further
confirmation from U.S. cash corn. Wheat and soybeans are both up more
than 20% from 52-week lows. Only corn lags, up 15%. A move by cash corn to
more than 20% up would be importang confirmation of the new bull market.
A Speculative Binge is now rampant in U.S. equity markets. In such an
environment high beta favorites are traded excessively, regardless of the
merits of current prices. All we really know is such periods of euphoria always
fail ultimately. We simply never know the reason for the failure ahead of time.
Thus far this month Agri-Equites are up 1.8% versus +1.6% for S&P 500. The
epicenter of speculation, the NASDAQ, is up 2.1%.
For the month: PAHC +14% Kubota +5% DAR +5% Wilmar +3%
24 January 2017
Agri-Food Price Index: 249.31
1 Week % Change: + 0.2%
4 Week % Change: + 6.5%
52 Week % Change: +11.1%
200 Day Moving Average: 219.52 +129.8
52-Week High: 249.31 0%
52-Week Low: 193.39 +29%
A New Bull Market Is Developing
Hoof prints of a new Agri-Commodity bull market continue to be identified.
From the October low, Agri-Food Price Index has risen by 29%. On average,
from their respective lows the 18 Agri-Commodities we follow are up 36%.
On an individual commodity basis, 13 of 18, or 72%, are more than 20%.
If we said the same things about the stock market, few would disagree
that a bull market was developing.
Two most important Agri-Commodities are soybeans and corn. They are
extremely important to the cash flow of farmers. U.S. cash soybeans
recently joined that group up more than 20%. U.S. corn prices have not, but
are up 15% from low. That is getting close. Further, U.S. cash corn recently
broke through resistance, making up the easiest path.
But, in all of this discussion remember to never forget that markets do not move
straight up. Corrections do occur naturally.
Agri-Equities were a winner in 2016, and continue to be so.
Agri-Equities are up 25% from a year ago. However, bargains are becoming
hard to find. For the month-to-date: KUB +10% Wilmar +10% SYT +9%
Sample newsletters have been updated.
5 January 2017
Agri-Food Price Index: 232.25
1 Week % Change: - 0.8%
4 Week % Change: + 0.7%
52 Week % Change: +10.0%
200 Day Moving Average: 217.17 +15.1
52-Week High: 239.95 -2%
52-Week Low: 193.39 +21%
A New Bull Market Being Birthed - Continued
We continue to observe conditions that suggest a new Agri-Commodity
bull market may be developing. Agri-Food Price Index rose to 24% above
the October low. Average gain from lows for the 18 Agri-Commodities we
follow is 25%. On an individual commodity basis 9 of 18, or 50%, are more
than 20% above their 52-week lows. We would like to see that percentage
rise to 60% before declaring victory. Our statistical price trend measures
are running 7 of 18, or 39%, positive. That measure lags considerably.
Confirmation of bullish view would be that percentage above 50%.
Basically, all seems to be heading in the right direction.
For 2017, possible winner is wheat. Corn is bet with some risk.
Soybeans looking better due to flooding in Argentina.
Agri-Equities were a winner in 2016. See link below. With 90% probability
of U.S. equities being down in 2017, we are not quite so optimistic for
results in 2016. But, Agri-Equities should again perform better than most stocks.
17 December 2016
Agri-Food Price Index: 239.95
1 Week % Change: + 4.0%
4 Week % Change: +15.5%
52 Week % Change: +13.9%
200 Day Moving Average: 215.78 +24.2
52-Week High: 239.95 0%
52-Week Low: 193.39 +24%
A New Bull Market Being Birthed?
Rally in Agri-Commodity prices continues. Agri-Food Price Index up 24%
from low, and up 14% from a year ago. 50% of Agri-Commodities are now
up more than 20% from their 52-week lows. U.S. exports continue to be
smoking hot, though we are somewhat worried about the insane dollar rally.
Commodities increasingly look like an important investment theme for 2017.
Internet and technology were so last year.
Agri-Equities continue to dominate performance game.
For 2016 to date:
S&P 500: +10.5%
NASDAQ: + 8.6%
Agri-Equities have done twice that of the NASDAQ Composite!
Leaders this year:
10 December 2016
Agri-Food Price Index: 230.68
1 Week % Change: + 5.4%
4 Week % Change: +11.4%
52 Week % Change: + 6.8%
200 Day Moving Average: 215.22 +15.1
52-Week High: 232.29 - 1%
52-Week Low: 193.39 +19%
A New Bull Market?
In last month Agri-Commodity prices have rallied strongly. Agri-Food Price Index
is now up 19% from the 52-week low in first week of October. That rise is
approaching the generally accepted 20% that is assumed to indicate a new bull
market. On average the individual Agri-Commodity prices are up 31% from their
lows. 8 of the 18, or 44%, Agri-Commodity prices are up more than 20%,
even ignoring rounding.
All of this is extremely positive, and suggests that Agri-Commodity prices are
attempting to birth a new bull market.
For 2016 to date:
S&P 500: +11%
NASDAQ: + 9%
Clearly, Agri-Equities had done far better than most other equity markets.
However, we do admit to being worried about the impact of a U.S. interest rate
increase on Wednesday.
A web cast on Gold & Agri 5 Dec 2016
To hear web cast:
Gold & Agri
|PEAK FOOD: INTRO
is now the dominant trend and will
influence Agri-Foods for decades.
Read our introductory article:
Peak Food: An Introduction
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|PEAK FOOD: PART TWO
extends our discussion of Peak Food
and the implications.
Read our Part Two artiicle:
Peak Food: Part Two
|PEAK FOOD: ISLAND EARTH
continues our discussion of peak food.
Agricultural area of Earth has peaked.
Recent web cast with Korelin Economics
17 January . On Agriculture