|The Agri-Food Value View
"Building Wealth Through Global Agri-Food Investments"
THE AGRI-FOOD VALUE VALUE
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Ned's Random Agri-Thoughts:
19 November 2016
Agri-Food Price Index: 204.4
1 Week % Change: - 1.3%
4 Week % Change: + 5.6%
52 Week % Change: - 9.7%
200 Day Moving Average: 214.7 -10.3
52-Week High: 232.29 -12%
52-Week Low: 193.39 + 6%
Major Grain Index($): 95.91
1 Week Change: + 2.4%
Low( 7 Oct 16): 89.31 + 7%
Immediately above is our Major Grain Index($). Last week that index of US
cash corn, soybean, and wheat rose by 2.4%. Major grains have been strong for
several weeks. Export numbers continue especially strong. Concern at present
time is the dollar rally since the Trump victory. No economic justification for
that rally exists. That said, the potential damage from juvenile traders running
rampant in foreign currency markets is hard to quantify. Dollar rally will likely
exhaust itself by 14 December FOMC meeting.
For the year-to-date:
Tier Two Agri-Equities: +12.3%
Tier One Agri-Equities: +10.0%
S&P 500: + 6.7%
NASDAQ: + 6.3%
BG + 9%
AGU + 6%
5 November 2016
Agri-Food Price Index: 212.15
1 Week % Change: - 0.4%
4 Week % Change: + 9.7%
52 Week % Change: - 5.3%
200 Day Moving Average: 215.43 -3.3
52-Week High: 232.29 - 9%
52-Week Low: 193.39 +10%
As we explain in November letter, Agri-Food Price Index seems to have
broken out of the inverted parabolic pattern. Up move of almost ten percent
in past four weeks is very impressive. In U.S. cash market none of the major
grains, corn, soybeans, or HRW, have made a weekly closing low in 5 weeks.
US cash oats hit new 52-week high, and that is a good sign.
In animal proteins, only pork/hogs at low.
What region of the world is the fastest growing corn import market?
Answer in November letter, and here next week.
For the year-to-date:
Agri-Equities: + 8.6%
Tier One Agri-Equities: + 8.5%
Tier Two Agri-Equities: + 6.7%
S&P 500: + 2.0%
NASDAQ: + 0.8%
ADM + 8%
ZTS + 5%
S&P 500 - 2%
NASDAQ - 3%
24 October 2016
Agri-Food Price Index: 208.32
1 Week % Change: + 6.2%
4 Week % Change: + 2.7%
52 Week % Change: - 6.8%
200 Day Moving Average: 215.62 -7.3
52-Week High: 232.29 -10%
52-Week Low: 193.39 + 8%
Increasingly being accepted is that the major US grains have made their lows.
US cash corn bottomed 9 weeks ago while US cash soybeans appear to have
done so 3 weeks ago. HRW US cash wheat may have broken out. Even hard
core, ill informed bears are starting to acknowledge that reality.
Animal proteins have been the weak sector but even there some improvement
is seen. That shift has started in those animal proteins with shortest production
cycle. Spot US eggs have doubled in the past 2 week. US broilers appear to have
begun a seasonal upswing. Hogs and pork may be trying to do so. But yet, no
hope has appeared in beef.
Agri-Equities continue to have good year, again performing better than market
in October. 60% of Agri-Equities have performed better than the market thus
far in 2016. For the year to date:
Tier Two: +12.1%
Tier One: + 8.0%
Agri-Equities: + 9.3%
S&P 500: + 5.0%
NASDAQ: + 4.8%
Interim Comments out on Monday.
Do the improvement in the grains, we are going to offer untill 27 October
a $50 credit to any new subscriber. Simply subscribe using one of the
above buttons and we will then credit you with $50.
16 October 2016
WASDE had no food for bears.
US cash corn bottom seems confirmed.
But, any rise will be slow.
Export reports now more important.
We have two new web cast upper right. Top one is our debut on
Korelin Economics. Two parts. First on Gold and Second on Agriculture.
Second web cast is about recent action in dollar, and that has been
a problem recently. Hurricane and week of writing and recording
has me behind but will get back on schedule.
24 September 2016
Today we emailed Interim Comments for 24 September to subscribers.
In this issue we discuss the harvest forecasts of Descartes Labs, which
we think will be of interest. For that reason we updated the sample of
the Interim Comments available in box to right. Also updated sample
for the monthly issue in box above it.
10 September 2016
Agri-Food Price Index: 208.53
1 Week % Change: - 1.7%
4 Week % Change: - 2.6%
52 Week % Change: - 9.0%
200 Day Moving Average: 217.77 -9.25
52-Week High: 232.29 -10%
52-Week Low: 208.53 +0%
On the surface appears that last week was miserable given the decline of
Agri-Food Price Index. Nearly all of the loss was centered on US cash
eggs -34% and US feeder cattle -6%. We will talk some on US feeder cattle in
Interim Comments on Thursday as looks like a bottoming process may finally
be developed. Good news did exist. US cash sorghum +5%, US cash
soybeans +4%, US cash wheat +4%, and US cash soybeans +4%.
That all occurred with WASDE coming on Monday.
Does the market no longer fear the estimates?
The end to the broad equity market rally seemed to arrive on Friday.
Damage was large, and recovery not likely any time soon. FOMC announcement
not do till 21st. Do not expect any action out of FOMC till 2017.
For month-to-date: S&P 500 -2% Agri-Equities -1.6% PAHC +6%
Wilmar +4% SYT +2% MON likely announce sale this week.
A web cast on dollar 6 Oct 2016
To hear our latest webcast use this link:
Mostly on Gold 2nd Battle of Britain
|PEAK FOOD: INTRO
is now the dominant trend and will
influence Agri-Foods for decades.
Read our introductory article:
Peak Food: An Introduction
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|PEAK FOOD: PART TWO
extends our discussion of Peak Food
and the implications.
Read our Part Two artiicle:
Peak Food: Part Two
|PEAK FOOD: ISLAND EARTH
continues our discussion of peak food.
Agricultural area of Earth has peaked.
Latest web cast with Korelin Economics
5 November . On Agriculture