|The Agri-Food Value View
"Building Wealth Through Global Agri-Food Investments"
THE AGRI-FOOD VALUE VALUE
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Ned's Random Agri-Thoughts:
24 October 2016
Agri-Food Price Index: 208.32
1 Week % Change: + 6.2%
4 Week % Change: + 2.7%
52 Week % Change: - 6.8%
200 Day Moving Average: 215.62 -7.3
52-Week High: 232.29 -10%
52-Week Low: 193.39 + 8%
Increasingly being accepted is that the major US grains have made their lows.
US cash corn bottomed 9 weeks ago while US cash soybeans appear to have
done so 3 weeks ago. HRW US cash wheat may have broken out. Even hard
core, ill informed bears are starting to acknowledge that reality.
Animal proteins have been the weak sector but even there some improvement
is seen. That shift has started in those animal proteins with shortest production
cycle. Spot US eggs have doubled in the past 2 week. US broilers appear to have
begun a seasonal upswing. Hogs and pork may be trying to do so. But yet, no
hope has appeared in beef.
Agri-Equities continue to have good year, again performing better than market
in October. 60% of Agri-Equities have performed better than the market thus
far in 2016. For the year to date:
Tier Two: +12.1%
Tier One: + 8.0%
Agri-Equities: + 9.3%
S&P 500: + 5.0%
NASDAQ: + 4.8%
Interim Comments out on Monday.
Do the improvement in the grains, we are going to offer untill 27 October
a $50 credit to any new subscriber. Simply subscribe using one of the
above buttons and we will then credit you with $50.
16 October 2016
WASDE had no food for bears.
US cash corn bottom seems confirmed.
But, any rise will be slow.
Export reports now more important.
We have two new web cast upper right. Top one is our debut on
Korelin Economics. Two parts. First on Gold and Second on Agriculture.
Second web cast is about recent action in dollar, and that has been
a problem recently. Hurricane and week of writing and recording
has me behind but will get back on schedule.
24 September 2016
Today we emailed Interim Comments for 24 September to subscribers.
In this issue we discuss the harvest forecasts of Descartes Labs, which
we think will be of interest. For that reason we updated the sample of
the Interim Comments available in box to right. Also updated sample
for the monthly issue in box above it.
10 September 2016
Agri-Food Price Index: 208.53
1 Week % Change: - 1.7%
4 Week % Change: - 2.6%
52 Week % Change: - 9.0%
200 Day Moving Average: 217.77 -9.25
52-Week High: 232.29 -10%
52-Week Low: 208.53 +0%
On the surface appears that last week was miserable given the decline of
Agri-Food Price Index. Nearly all of the loss was centered on US cash
eggs -34% and US feeder cattle -6%. We will talk some on US feeder cattle in
Interim Comments on Thursday as looks like a bottoming process may finally
be developed. Good news did exist. US cash sorghum +5%, US cash
soybeans +4%, US cash wheat +4%, and US cash soybeans +4%.
That all occurred with WASDE coming on Monday.
Does the market no longer fear the estimates?
The end to the broad equity market rally seemed to arrive on Friday.
Damage was large, and recovery not likely any time soon. FOMC announcement
not do till 21st. Do not expect any action out of FOMC till 2017.
For month-to-date: S&P 500 -2% Agri-Equities -1.6% PAHC +6%
Wilmar +4% SYT +2% MON likely announce sale this week.
Updated web cast at top of page.
27 August 2016
Agri-Food Price Index: 215.17
1 Week % Change: - 1.2%
4 Week % Change: + 2.1%
52 Week % Change: - 4.5%
200 Day Moving Average: 218.64 -3.47
52-Week High: 232.29 - 6%
52-Week Low: 210.19 +4%
Last week was miserable as chicken little, aka teenage commodity traders,
took control of the grain markets. Sentiment was bearish as traders ignored
any good news and fixated on negative news. In reading some end of week
comments all sense of analysis was discarded. That prices are going down is
the only thought. Normally reasonable commentators lost all sense of reason,
screaming about $2 corn as a possibility.
Pro Farmer Crop Tour estimated the U.S. corn harvest at 14.728 billion
bushels versus last USDA estimate of 15.153 billion bushel. That difference
of 425 million bushels is significant. When last WASDE was released many
suspected that USDA estimate was too high. All we can really say from this
is that likely that future WASDEs, next on Monday, 12 September, will likely
lower estimate of corn harvest. Also ignored by the way was that the world
outside the U.S. continues to consume more soybeans than produced.
US exports sales of new crop in last reported week for corn +10%
and soybeans +13%
Last week was not a good week for equities. For the month-to-date the S&P 500
is now in the negative. Agri-Equities were punished for the action in the grains.
Now down 1% for month. For month: JBSAY +11% SYT +10%
CALM +5% MON + 1%
20 August 2016
Agri-Food Price Index: 217.86
1 Week % Change: + 1.8%
4 Week % Change: + 1.3%
52 Week % Change: - 5.3%
200 Day Moving Average: 218.91 -1.06
52-Week High: 232.29
52-Week Low: 210.19
Big event of past two weeks seems to be the major reversal in corn futures
that occurred on 12 August after WASDE was released. After plunging to a
new low, the futures reversed and actually closed up a few cents. We now assign
a 65% probability to U.S. corn having put in a bottom. However, nothing may be
confirmed till September WASDE. Soybeans are a little trickier, put thus far
end of week U.S. cash prices had a bottom four weeks ago. In futures, on both
Thursday and Friday the futures reversed off lows. We assign a 55% probability
that Thursday, 18th, was the low.
Last week US cash eggs + 28%, US cash corn + 3.5%, US cash soybeans + 2.5%
US$ Malaysian palm oil + 2.2% Surprisingly, US cash sorghum was up 1.7%
for first up week in 9 weeks!
Big story in Agri-Equities last week DE, +13% on Friday. Earnings were
well above the average estimate. Sometime analysts do not realize how
good DE is at managing its business. AGCO followed DE higher, up almost 7%
on Friday. For month-to-date: Agri-Equities +0.7% vs. S&P 500 +0.5%
DE + 12% JBSAY +6% CALM +4%(be careful with this one)
ZTS +4% AGCO +4%
Note on DE that stock closed at $87.32 with high on Friday of $88.08.
52-week high is $88.20. If DE makes a new high could draw more buyers,
and could make whole Agri-Equity sector look better.
A web cast on dollar 6 Oct 2016
To hear our latest webcast use this link:
Mostly on Gold 2nd Battle of Britain
|PEAK FOOD: INTRO
is now the dominant trend and will
influence Agri-Foods for decades.
Read our introductory article:
Peak Food: An Introduction
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|PEAK FOOD: PART TWO
extends our discussion of Peak Food
and the implications.
Read our Part Two artiicle:
Peak Food: Part Two
|PEAK FOOD: ISLAND EARTH
continues our discussion of peak food.
Agricultural area of Earth has peaked.
Our debut web cast with Korelin Economics
I am in first two segments. On Gold and Agriculture